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Monday June
22,
2009 BACK NEXT
Who is the one on probation?
By
Angelo
Persichilli
THE HILL
TIMES
Future
of Harper's government depends more on economy than it does on Libs
Last week's political events ended exactly the way
most thought they would: no summer election.
However, while
the outcome was easily foreseeable, the reasons for this
made-for-TV-political-drama with its happy ending offers some
interesting indications about our national political landscape right
now.
First, we're not heading to the polls this summer
because cooler heads prevailed. We're not having an election because
the Conservatives and Liberals didn't want one.
The
Conservatives are ready, but knew there was a chance they could
lose. The Liberals knew there was a chance they could win, but
weren't ready. The Bloc Québécois
and the NDP said they wanted an election but that was only a
political gimmick to embarrass the Liberals to force them into
agreeing with the Conservatives.
The second consideration
that emerged from last week's events is something we knew since last
January.
Federal politics is now in the hands of two
parties, the Liberals and the Conservatives. The Bloc Québécois
is still the parking space for disgruntled voters in Quebec
contemplating their next move for the Conservatives, like last year,
or for the Liberals, as it looks this year.
Basically the
Bloc Québécois'
fortunes go up or down, not according to what Gilles Duceppe does,
but according to the abilities of other parties to gather support or
not in the province.
The third observation is about the role
of the NDP, a role that is lately close to zero. In every
Parliament, a political party must aim to either be in government or
the official opposition. The NDP has the numeric consistency and the
political clout to be neither.
Unfortunately for Layton, his
party can play a role only if the Liberals are in government because
they have closed any doors to cooperating with the Conservatives.
This position was justified in the past when the ideological
confrontation was more radical and the differences between the two
parties were insurmountable. Things have changed nationally and
internationally.
The last federal Conservative budget
contained many elements that the NDP had been asking for over a long
period of time and, with a more open mind, Layton could have easily
obtained more concessions from Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Instead, the NDP has decided to vote against everything
Harper proposes even before reading the proposals.
This
leaves him at the mercy of the Liberals and, as anyone can argue, it
is not a comfortable position to be in for an NDP leader.
As
for the Michael Ignatieff Liberals, I must recognize that the new
leadership is doing a good job of trying to balance the interests of
the country and those of their own political organization.
Ignatieff inherited a party that was highly divided, without
an organization, financially broke and without policies. He and his
team are moving quickly to fill the gap with the Conservatives, but
this still requires a lot of time. I'm only pointing at one mistake
they made in January and repeated last week. The request of
probation for the Harper government is turning also into probation
of the Liberal leadership.
It seems to me that more
Canadians were interested in how Ignatieff handled the crisis, than
Prime Minister Harper.
As in January, last week they avoided
taking a position and deferred the crisis to the end of September.
At the end of the day, I don't know who gained more points last
week, Harper or Ignatieff.
We are going to repeat the same
exercise in the fall and I'm not sure if Ignatieff will benefit more
from this.
Then there's the Conservatives.
Let's
face it, the future of Stephen Harper's government depends more on
the Canadian economy than on what the Liberals are going to do in
the next few months.
However, if the future of the
government is connected to the future of the economy, then the
results of the next election depend mainly on how the Prime Minister
handles himself with Canadians.
I don't believe the negative
ads will help him win a majority government because they don't
address the two major issues the Conservatives have to deal with:
Quebec and women voters. The problem with the government is not
necessarily the policies, but the attitude and the perceptions.
The dealings with Ignatieff last week is the right way to go
for the government to address these problems. Prime Minister Harper
now has all summer to consolidate what he started last week and hope
that the economy will do the rest.
Whatever the Liberals and
the NDP do on the barbecue circuit this summer, it will matter only
if the Conservatives fail to address their attitude and perception
problems.
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