Monday Aug. 25, 2008   BACK  | NEXT

THIS TIME IS FOR REAL

by Angelo Persichilli
THE HILL TIMES

This time it's for real. Canadians will go to the polls this fall.

The only question is whether Prime Minister Stephen Harper goes to Governor General Michaëlle Jean to ask for the dissolution of the legislature, or Opposition Leader Stéphane Dion pulls the plug right after the House resumes on Sept. 15.

According to a Liberal strategist, "Dion would prefer to present a non confidence vote himself so he can show strength to the liberals and to Canadians."

This, however, might not be possible, because Prime Minister Stephen Harper might go to the Governor General before the House reconvenes: "It all depends on how the meetings with the leaders of the opposition parties will go," a Conservative strategist told The Hill Times.

Of course, in the case that Harper is satisfied with the meetings he has with the party leaders next month, Dion will have his chance to defeat the government. Still, he will need the cooperation of the other two parties, the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party, to bring down the government. This support from Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton shouldn't be a problem, having lately confirmed that they will vote in favour of a non-confidence motion.

Of course, many times the Liberals have said they will vote against the government and, for whatever reason, they have changed their minds. "This time," a Liberal strategist told The Hill Times last week, "it is different, because we've run out of excuses to support the Conservative government."

Another source close to the Liberal leadership said last week that "this legislature is dead and, finally, it seems that every body has understood that. I'm not saying that they are all happy, but frustration has taken over and there is a need to put an end to all of this, in a way or another."

Liberal strategists are convinced that elections are around the corner and they have intensified meetings. Last Thursday, almost 20 of them, mostly close to Liberal Deputy Leader Michael Ignatieff, had a meeting at Senator David Smith's cottage in Cobourg, Ont. Among the participants were Senator Art Eggleton, MP Paul Zed, and some of Jean Chrétien's loyalists like David Collenette.

According to Liberal sources, they are "very much concerned about the performance of the leader, and concerned about explaining the Green Plan. Even if they feel better about Dion today than they felt at the same time last year, expectations are relatively reasonable."

Asked to qualify what the "relatively reasonable" expectations are, the source said that "they would be delighted if they could win 85 seats."

Liberals strategists do not pay a lot of attention to what recent polls are saying about their party being neck-and-neck with the Conservatives: "We believe," says the source, "that there are two elements that are not factored in the recent polls: the leadership factor and the money available during the campaign."

According to the same source, the Liberals think that they have at least 20 seats "if not more" that are vulnerable in Ontario, and could lose them to the Conservatives, mostly in the 905 area. If there is any danger in the 416 area, it comes from the NDP under Jack Layton.

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