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Monday Mar.
24, 2008 BACK
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With or
without Dion?
by Angelo
Persichilli
THE HILL
TIMES
Despite all the hoopla in the
riding of Toronto Centre, Ont., last Monday night, federal Liberals
are very aware of the problems their party is facing and the
difficulties they have to overcome in the upcoming federal election.
In fact, among some Liberal strategists, the debate is not
any longer about when they should go to the polls, in the spring or
in the fall, but about the possibility of changing the leader before
the next federal election.
"We know that we need another
leader. The problem is to find the proper mechanism to get rid of
Mr. Dion without going through what we had to experience in the late
'80s with John Turner," one Liberal strategist told The Hill
Times last week.
Based on conversations with Liberal MPs
and strategists, it appears they're looking at the pros and cons of
an early change in leadership.
The first group is made up of
those pushing for a change before the next general election, arguing
that it is necessary to act before the current leader damages the
party beyond repair. If the leader is not able to raise money to pay
his debt, then nobody can expect him to raise money for the party.
Mr. Dion is not popular in Quebec, and without Quebec, "the Liberal
party goes nowhere," said one source. He can't speak convincing
English, so he cannot appeal to English Canada and he has failed to
reunite a party that is now more divided than ever. He has been
unable to articulate a clear political platform to present as an
alternative to the Conservatives. His election in Montreal was
legitimate and he received a real genuine chance to do something,
but he has failed on all accounts.
The second group, who
opposes this initiative, has its valid arguments as well. First,
they say, there is no mechanism in place to replace him, meaning
that any initiative to remove him before the election will further
split the Liberal Party. Every leader has had at least two chances
to lead the party during a general election, and Dion deserves at
least one; his ability to raise money has been dramatically reduced
by a leadership campaign that absorbed a lot of resources before and
after the convention; the polls, despite the criticism, still show
the Liberal Party neck-and-neck with the Conservatives.
There is a third group who says there is no problem with
Dion's leadership. I spoke with many Liberals but I had hard time
finding one with this opinion. Of course, most of the people
belonging to groups one and two, when they talk to the media on the
record, have no problem in being part of the third group: Dion is
the best, they say, when you have your tape recorder on. The truth
comes out when you turn it off.
One Liberal strategist made
comments on the record after last Monday's byelections, cheering, of
course, over the triumph of the Liberal Party. The strategist then
told The Hill Times on a not-for-attribution basis that what
saved Dion from an almost open revolt the day after the byelections
were the 150 votes that won Vancouver Quadra for the Liberal
candidate.
"I'm pretty sure that had we lost two out of four
ridings, Mr. Dion would be now on his way out," the liberal
strategist said.
Despite some celebrations from friendly
media and cheerleaders around Dion, the results of last week's
byelections are considered bad news for the Liberals by many party
operatives and MPs. "A leader that after a year has not been able to
pay his debt for the leadership race," says a Liberal MP, "doesn't
give a very reassuring message to the voters."
So there are
two question for the Liberals to address. Do they want to go to the
polls in the spring or the fall. Will they do it with Dion or
without him?
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