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|Monday Jan.. 6, 2003 |
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MARZOLINI: "The
leadership? i think it's all over"
by Angelo Persichilli
THE HILL TIMES
The Liberal Party's top pollster says the current political scene may look
confusing and even boring, but Michael Marzolini, chairman of Pollara, says
the current federal political picture is exciting and will actually revitalize
the political debate in Canada.
Moreover, there's no doubt you need a
scorecard to keep track of who's in and who's out, who's up and who's down on
Parliament Hill. Industry Minister Allan Rock (Etobicoke-Centre, Ont.) bowed
out of the race last week, and Liberal MP Dennis Mills (Toronto-Danforth,
Ont.), who was considering running for the party's leadership and so far
raised $480,000, told The Hill Times that he's poised to announce he won't be
part of the "democratic exercise" and is instead considering a run for the
Toronto mayor's race. Meanwhile, Heritage Minister Sheila Copps (Hamilton
East, Ont.) and John Manley (Ottawa South, Ont.) seem to be on the verge of
jumping into the fray.
In this context, Mr. Marzolini painted a
picture of the federal political landscape. In a wide-ranging interview with
The Hill Times, Mr. Marzolini said "according to the current numbers" Paul
Martin (LaSalle-Émard, Que.) will be the next leader of the Liberal Party. He
also bet his money on NDP candidate Jack Layton to lead the New Democrats and
Tory MP Peter MacKay (Pictou-Antogonish-Guysborough, N.S.) to be the next
leader of the Progressive Conservatives.
It looks quite confusing these days in Ottawa?
"It's a transitional period, it's very exiting for Canadians. They are
excited about the options that might be presented to them. There are many
candidates, changes and political positioning."
It seems that there are not even enough candidates to have a race. We know
what's happening in the Liberal Party or the PC Party: where are the opinions?
"Well, there is a number of candidates, new names, there is still a lot of
speculation about the relationship with the Alliance. However, none of these
races, PC, NDP or even the Liberal, are interesting in isolation. What's
interesting is that we are going to have a new slate of leaders in the next
election."
You mean that the outcome of one race is going to influence others?
"I do not think that the Liberal leadership will be influenced by the
leadership of any other party. In fact, I believe it is the other way around."
But the Liberal race will take place after the NDP and PC race?
"Delegates for the PC and NDP conventions will be looking at who best will be
able to contrast against the new Liberal leader."
Of course you mean Paul Martin. Do you believe the race is over?
"From what I can see, unless something major will occur, Paul Martin will
likely be the next leader of the Liberal Party."
What about the NDP?
"I'll bet my money on Jack Layton."
And the Conservatives?
"Peter MacKay will likely take the leadership. Of course, those are the
predictions based on the current public opinion and numbers."
What can influence public opinion most at the present time and change their
position?
"The issue currently on the table is health care. However, the issues for the
leadership campaign are often different and directed towards the delegates who
often have a different positioning in all parties."
Do you believe Sheila Copps will be in the race?
"Certainly there is a constituency in the party that would welcome that.
However, like John Manley, there are many questions they have to answer
themselves. We can predict public opinion, not personal opinion."
So at the present time it seems that the Liberals are going have a
coronation. Do you think it is good for the party to miss all the excitement
of a hot convention?
"If it is a coronation I believe the Liberal Party has to search for a way to
put the debate on the table. A leadership campaign, despite an element of
divisiveness that always arises from races, the actual debate is very
important to engage the public. Even though they are not voting directly for
the leader, but for them to be interested enough in what the new leader might
do different or do the same as his predecessor."
How can you surrogate a campaign?
"If that can't be done during the race, they must have a way to put the debate
in front of the public otherwise."
The Canadian Alliance is not engaged in a leadership race, still the new
leader seems not to be able to take off in the public support. Why?
"Stephen Harper hasn't made an impact on the public yet because the public is
not ready to engage in a comparative shoppers' exercise. The public latched on
to Stockwell Day very quickly because he was the only new leader they had to
consider because there was a lot of hype around him when he became leader.
Currently the public are still feel jaded and a bit ripped off through the
Stockwell Day experience and have a wait-and-see attitude with Stephen Harper.
When the other parties have their leaders wind up I expect more people begin
to scrutinize Harper's performance and make their decision based on that."
Then the Bloc: are they going to be a factor after the next election?
"I see them getting every smaller and becoming more like the creditist in
their later year. I don't see them removed from the scene in the near future,
but they don't seem to have too much growth potential."
While the right is split between the Alliance and the Conservatives, some
believe the left will be split between the Green Party and the NDP.
"No, I don't believe so. The Green Party has been, at least in British
Columbia, a parking lot for the NDP support. Green Party support was quite
high in the province, now the NDP has made a comeback in British Columbia. I
expect any Green Party vote is a result of a disenchanted NDP supporter. I
believe Jack Layton will bring new life to the NDP and there is already some
evidence."
You believe in a stronger presence after the election.
"The public pendulum is swinging slightly to the left and will no doubt help
Jack Leyton build some support for his party. The pendulum moves back and
forth."
And now it is swinging to the left.
"Not as much it was used to. It has been moving to the right for quite a few
years and I think it is re-adjusting itself right now moving more to the
centre. And that's good news not just for the New Democrat but for the
Liberal Party itself." |
