by Angelo Persichilli
THE HILL TIMES

If Jean Chrétien has announced he is leaving in 18 months, why do Martinites want to speed up the process only to shorten it by a few months? many Liberals have been asking themselves.
Why risk the unity of the Liberal Party which, according to the polls, now belongs more to Mr. Martin then to Jean Chrétien? There are many answers but the most obvious is that Mr. Martin “owns” the Liberal Party but doesn’t possess it. This is a very uncomfortable and upsetting situation for Martinites.

Mr. Martin is like a landlord who pays the mortgage on a piece of property but, for 18 months, the tenant is freely reaping the benefits. However, the reason why the Liberal party's landlord is upset is more practical then moral. In fact, the question is: can he afford to pay for an 18-month “mortgage” without being able to collect the income from the property?

By better defining what the “mortgage” and the “property” is all about, we can understand the frustration experienced by so many Martinites. Let’s start with the latter. This Liberal government was thrown into office for the first time in 1993 as an act of love; it was then confirmed in 1997 as an act of convenience (there was no opposition, after all), and in 2000 it held on to power again thanks to an act of desperation (the alternative was giving the reins to Stockwell Day).

The question many Martinites now ask themselves is why Canadians should vote for the Liberals in 2005? Yes, polls are still favoring the Liberals and, with Paul Martin as a leader, a fourth consecutive mandate seems to be a foregone conclusion. However, time is the essence of the game at this stage. And this brings us to the concept of the “mortgage."

Popularity doesn’t come cheap. People expect performance, good organization from a candidate, a vision for the future of the country and, most of all, a solid plan to keep the economy prosperous. “Can the emotional commitment to Paul Martin sustain itself for 18 months?” asks a Liberal strategist. “In music how many weeks can you listen to Shania Twain’s number one song? Experts will tell you that, at best, 12 weeks. After that, your emotions starts looking for another tune.”

How many weeks can you sustain the emotional support around a public policy idea? At most six months, says the same strategist, “and, after that, the interest of people goes on something else.” Even a national campaign lasting 60 days, a period full of initiative, is too long for the media, organizers and voters. “Do we really believe that a leadership campaign is different?” asks the strategist.

To put it simply, Mr. Martin has picked up too soon and they rightly fear that it is impossible to keep the momentum for 18 months. Then there is the organization: there is no doubt that Mr. Martin has the best organization. However, even if you have the best car, it is hard to win a race if there is no race. If you have the best car, the more you wait the more you have no place to go but down. When you have a bad organization, the more you wait the more you have no place but up.

And, what about a vision for the future? Nowadays the future is tomorrow; you blink and it becomes the past. Eighteen months is twice the time you need to create life. Mr. Martin has to prepare for his vision when there is already somebody, the tenant of this house (we're talking about Jean Chrétien, here), who is shaping it by borrowing money from its account. If he succeeds, in 18 months people will barely remember Paul Martin's name; if Mr. Chrétien fails, it is up to Mr. Martin to foot the bill. Furthermore, will the party have the good fortune of going to the polls in two years time with the economy still humming along, as it has been doing over the past five to seven years? We know that the Premier of Ontario Ernie Eves is eyeing a Fall 2002 election because they are afraid to go later, in the middle of a possible economic slow down. The fear is especially real now that it look as if the U.S. economy will not pick up soon.

Mr. Chrétien has already set his cruise control and is ready to sail for another 18 months. He is, obviously, putting a lot of strain on the Liberal Party and, because of the uncertainty within the governing party, on the country. But, unfortunately for Mr. Martin, it will fall on his shoulders to call the shots when Mr. Chrétien is gone. It is not fair, but that’s what it is.