|
|Monday Feb. 18, 2002 |
BACK
| NEXT
INTRODUCING PRIME
MINISTER MARTIN
by Angelo Persichilli
THE
HILL TIMES
Ladies and gents, the games are over: the next Prime Minister of Canada will
be the Right Honourable Paul Martin. Industry Minister Allan Rock knows this,
the former minister of Industry knows this too and the Prime Minister as well.
Mr. Martin is going to be Prime Minister because he has worked hard and
diligently as Minister of Finance. He's also been a very honest team player
and has worked hard to establish a very good relationship with most of the MPs
and their local organizations. In other words: he deserves it.
Brian Tobin has understood that. That's the reason why he left the government,
and it's why he is now close to Martin. So who brought those two men together?
I asked someone close to the former premier of
Newfoundland. The answer was simple: "Reality and pragmatism."
The
same goes for Allan Rock. He knows full well that the present status doesn't
allow him, or, for that matter any other potential candidate, to seriously
challenge Martin's leadership.
The
big picture is also clear to the Prime Minister. He knows that Martin has a
lot of support in the caucus and in the Liberal Party at large. The PM's best
card was Brian Tobin and that card is gone. Yes, there's his deputy John
Manley. He is doing a very good job but political leaderships are based on
organization and, unfortunately, Mr. Manley seems to believe that organization
is an optional thing.
According to sources close to Tobin, within hours after the resignation's
announcement, Rock's and Martin's people were on the phone trying to lure
support from Tobin's people. "The only camp that did not lift a finger was
Manley's," says the same source.
That leaves room for only one consideration: the leading candidate to succeed
Jean Chrétien is Paul Martin. The only alternative to Martin, at this time, is
Jean Chrétien himself. In other words, if Chrétien wants to stop Martin, the
Prime Minister has to run for the fourth mandate.
And
this takes us to the statutory leadership review that makes the Prime Minister
nervous. In fact, some are saying that the Rock outburst was more about
creating room in the party to woo new members than it was to dilute Martin's
support in preparation of the leadership review.
Another source dismissed this possibility: "The Prime Minister has already
decided that he wants to go. He is only looking at the proper way out without
any doubt or perception that he has been forced out." The same source says
that "for this reason Chrétien has refused to support directly any candidate."
The
Liberal insider stresses the fact that "this is the reason why Tobin left,
because he did not have any support from Jean Chrétien for his leadership
ambitions. And the same goes for Rock. The Prime Minister was not out there
supporting Rock's statements and pretty soon the Minister of Industry will be
upset just like Tobin was."
So,
nobody can stop Paul Martin? Yep. And it looks like the only group that can
stop Martin is his own organization. In fact, many are wondering why some of
his organizers had to bring about changes within the party knowing that, with
or without the changes, nobody could challenge his credentials? Why give an
opportunity to the "opposition" to criticize?
The
majority of the MPs support Martin, he is well-liked amongst the people in the
party, furthermore, he has the best organizers of the Liberal Party ready to
get that support out in a leadership race or in a leadership review.
Why
change the rules?
According to a senior Liberal strategist, the problem is not with Chrétien or
Martin, but with some bored backroom people willing to prove themselves by
jockeying with the troops on the ground and preparing for a war that will
never be fought.
I
know that the Alliances disease is contagious. It has seriously wounded the
Progressive Conservative Party, has destroyed the Reform Party, has put the
same Canadian Alliance in a state of a coma, it has spread throughout to the
New Democrats who keep thinking in terms of "right" and "left" instead of
right and wrong and now it's attacking the Liberal Party.
Grits, of course, are much more pragmatic than the leftists and much less
quarrelsome than the rightist. They know that united they stand, divided they
fall.
Now
the game is basically over and there are only two players left and they the
same ones who were on the field in Calgary in 1990: Paul Martin and Jean
Chrétien. The first round is for Chrétien. Next year at this time he has to
decide if he wants to challenge the status quo and remain for the fourth
mandate
If
Chrétien decides so, he has to face the leadership review.
At
that point the ball will be in Martin's camp: he has decide to challenge the
Prime Minister or stay put as he did in the previous convention because,
contrary to what the media are writing, the infamous meeting at the
Constellation Hotel in Toronto was organized to stop any challenge to the
Prime Minister, not to organize it! Mr. Martin at this point knows that if he
decides not to challenge the Prime Minister, his political career is over.
And
the fight between Chrétien and Martin might be won by Joe Clark. In fact, it
seems that the leader of the Conservative Party is more interested in the
leadership dispute in the Liberal Party than the one within Canadian Alliance.
So
what's going to happen this week? Well, there will be some attacks against
Rock in the Martin-dominated Liberal caucus meeting on Wednesday, and there
will be some attacks against Martin in the Chrétien-dominated cabinet on
Tuesday. I'm told Rock is ready to face the caucus and will respond to each MP
who has attacked him, but it has been brought to my attention that Mr. Martin
too is ready to respond accordingly in cabinet.
|
